Exxon: Energy Report to 2030 with Peak Oil Prediction

Exxon has out an interesting — if fairly PR-y — new report on global energy use to 2030. If you’re anything like me, you immediately e-flipped to the section on global oil supply & demand to see what the kids at Exxon are saying these days about peak oil.

Here is the relevant section, which essentially says that non-OPEC oil has already peaked and will go into decline around 2020, and OPEC will peak around 2030.


  1. Well, build more refineries!
    Ideally, it would be nice to go all alternative.

  2. On Oct 31, it was reported in WSJ that “Sadad I. Al-Husseini, an oil consultant and former executive at Aramco…predicted that supply shortages will continue to add $12 to the price of oil for every million barrels a day in additional demand.” I built a simple model using that function, and the 1.3% demand growth predicted by the industry, to predict the nominal price (assuming 3.5% inflation) of oil in 2030. It rises to $668 bbl. Basically, double-digit growth rates in the price will be experienced for the next 12 years, with oil price inflation of 20%+ over the next few years.

  3. One Way Stox says:

    …from 9/13/06
    1. Saudi Oil Exec: World Has Used Just 18% of Oil
    Despite talk that Hubbert’s peak has been reached – the point at which half of the world’s oil is discovered and supplies begin to diminish – one Saudi oil executive says that we have used just 18 percent of the world’s reserves.
    “The world has only consumed about 18 percent of its conventional potential,” Abdallah S. Jum’ah, president and CEO of state-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co., Aramco for short, told an audience of oil ministers and petroleum executives at the OPEC conference in Vienna.
    Jum’ah estimates that the world’s potential oil reserves are 4.5 trillion barrels. That’s enough to power the world for another 140 years at current consumption rates.
    The Associated Press notes that most experts believe Earth’s oil resources are at least 3 trillion barrels and maybe more than 4 trillion barrels. But experts assume a 2 percent growth rate in consumption, and estimate that oil could only last until 2070.