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November 15, 2007
Oil Inventories Confound Analysts
Forecasting commodity inventories and prices is a little like (to adapt my CNBC commentating analogy) predicting impending Brownian motion in a coffee cup. We got another example of that this morning, with U.S. crude oil inventories coming in wildly different from what the market was expecting, at a 2.8-million barrel increase versus the 300,00 barrel decline that was forecast.
Granted, finished gasoline inventories are down, but refinery capacity usage, while high-ish, is still under 90%, giving room to imagine some catch-up to be played. Wither prices at the pump from here?
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Hubbert was right. Hubbert was right.
up, with some zig-zags along the way---pk