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November 13, 2007

Subprime is Survivable, But ...

While I'm carrying all the negative news, I might as well point to this fairly dire piece in the FT today. The subject is the state of the U.S. economy, and the author makes some compelling arguments that subprime is survivable, but it's what comes after that spells trouble for the U.S. economy:

The destruction of value and wealth thus far in the US as a result of the housing sector crisis is manageable. Its effects are mitigated and could well be more than offset by the strength of the export sector. However, the sub-prime crisis is but the tip of the credit risk mis-pricing iceberg. Unsecured consumer loans and car loans, and the large stock of ABS backed by credit card receivables, are waiting to join the credit risk-repricing party.

The single best thing that could happen would be for the true magnitude of the losses suffered by banks and other exposed parties to be revealed and put in the P&L. Until what happens, fear of getting stuck with the hot potato makes banks unnaturally unwilling to extend credit against the kind of collateral that they would not have thought about twice accepting at the beginning of the year.

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