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November 4, 2007
Sneak Peek at Weekend Reading
Here is a sneak peek at some links from my weekly Weekend Reading column over at TheStreet.com.
- Rumors rife of another failing U.K. bank (Guardian)
- Canadian currency (and others) disconnecting from U.S. economy (G&M)
- Some Vegas casinos are seeing lower win rates for table games (WSJ)
- Food prices are skyrocketing as farmers adapt to biofuels and other factors (Economist)
- California uber-realtor recommends people get out of the business (L.A. Times)
- Art funds and related indices are popping up in the greatest bull market for art in history (IDD)
- Jim Rogers Call Ben Bernanke a "nut" (Bloomberg)
- Investors hate, hate, hate, hate, hate the U.S. dollar (Reuters)
- Doubling in oil recovery efficiency seen possible (O&G Journal)
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Back from weekend in Vancouver. First time ever-- CDN$ worth more than USD. Ouch!
I know, I know. Crazy thing. The end of the world must be nigh.
Month to month fluctuations in casino profits are fascinating. A month in a big casino is not long enough for probabilities to even out. That should be a lesson for anyone who wants to be a professional gambler.
The really surprising thing is the expected win rate of 20%. Most players at the tables are making decisions based on instincts and intuition or memories of playing 21 as a kid. It only takes a couple of hours of reading to lower the casino win rate to less than 2%. A 20% win rate doesn’t mean that the casino takes 20% of your money; it means that they will end up with all of your money. At 100 hands per hour, $10 per hand times 20% means they are taking $200 per hour. If you start with a bank role of 40 betting units, you will be done in 2 hours. With a 2% win rate, you would expect to lose $20 per hour. After netting out the free drinks, it is similar to the cost of going to a movie, and you have a chance of riding some hot streaks. You will never have a hot streak against a 20% head wind.
Casino gambling may be the only area of life where going in with a defeatist attitude and understanding that you will lose (and taking steps to minimize losses) is the key to enjoying yourself.
1. Comment by Karthik -- November 5, 2007 @ 5:02 AM