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October 8, 2007
Gambling Proficiency Quiz
Via Bloomberg, an amusing gambling proficiency quiz:QuestionsAnswers here.1. Blackjack:
You are playing at a table with six decks and the dealer always stands on 17.
i) You are dealt an Ace and a 4. The dealer is showing a 4.
You should:
a) Double down (double your bet and take one final card)
b) Take a card/hit
c) Standii) You are dealt a 5 and a 7. The dealer is showing a 2.
You should:
a) Double down
b) Take a card/hit
c) Stand2. Craps:
In this dice game, what odds are paid for a bet on rolling a ``hard 8,'' or two 4s?
a) 7-1
b) 8-1
c) If you think I'm going to bet the hard eight, you're nuts.3. Poker:
Which cards would you prefer to be dealt as a starting hand in Texas Hold 'Em?
a) Ace, Queen (not the same suit)
b) King, Queen (same suit)
c) 10, 104. Proposition bets (unique wagers on a specific outcome):
i) How many people do you need to have in a room for there to be a 50 percent chance that two of them have the same birthday?
a) 23
b) 37
c) 52ii) You are on a game show and there are three doors. You are told that behind one door there is a box with $1 million and behind the other two a box with $1. You choose a door. The game show host, who knows in advance where the winning box is, opens one of the other doors to reveal a box with $1. He then offers you the choice to switch from your original door to the other door. What should you do?
a) Stick with your original choice
b) Switch doors
c) It doesn't matter what you doiii) You are in a bar and someone offers you a bet on the last digit of the serial number of the $1 bill the barman is about to give you as part of your change. Should you bet on odd or even?
5. Football:
You learn that an ice storm with 40 mile-per-hour winds is forecast to hit the Green Bay Packers' Lambeau Field during a game against the Miami Dolphins. The betting line has not yet moved, and you can bet on the outcome of the game as well as the total points scored by both teams. (In these ``over/under'' bets, you wager on the two teams' points totaling more or less than a level set by the bookie.) What is the best bet?
a) Bet on the Packers because they have more experience with playing in the snow and high winds.
b) Parlay the Packers and the ``over'' on the basis that there will be more fumbles and turnovers and the Packers should handle the experience better.
c) Bet on the ``under'' as both teams are likely to struggle in the conditions.
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I was taught to never double down in blackjack since it always works in the house's favor.
Wow what terrible answers. John K pointed one out but the question before's answer I find is the worst:
(b) (2 points). You should always swap doors. At the start you have a one in three, or 33 percent, chance of choosing the $1 million door. Revealing the $1 door doesn't change your odds but it does change the odds of the remaining door being the correct to 2 in 3, or 66.6 percent. So you should always swap.
What!? I guess my statistics classes are more recent than most (only a couple of years back) but still.. I think someone needs to brush up on probability theory.
Sorry, Guillaume, but the author is correct on the door swap question. Search around and you will find the explanation on line.
The serial number one is obviously stupid (no info on whether the numbering start at odd or evens), but the door problem is correct - it's the classic Monty Hall problem - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem.
Most people first come across this during an introduction to Bayesian statistics.
Yes, the bill serial number must be an oversight from the quiz creator.
@Matt -- the Monty Hall problem is introduced in any competent class on basic probability. Maybe it pops up in "bayesian statistics" too, but please. It's an elementary (but wonderful) conditional probability problem.
What I find funny about monty hall is they based an entire game show around it, and every time I've seen it discussed, supposedly "smart people" (well, bloggers) get confused about it. So that's awesome, thanks!
Actually, Monty Hall rarely, if ever, used the technique described. He didn't (or at least rarely) allow people to switch the last two doors, but offered them cash or prizes to not open the door at all.
I am perplexed by the dollar bill answer. Some seemingly random numbers are biased because of check digits but dollar bill numbers are still purely serial.
The Monty Hall problem is a classic. Henry Mintzberg has written extensively about the problem with the education system, and in particular business schools, creating artificially closed systems, and teaching people to do analysis within the closed system, oblivious to external information. In the Monty Hall problem, most students assume that they are dealing with a closed system involving the decision maker and the doors. Even though the omniscient provider of external information is part of the set up of the problem, most people (even esteemed statisticians) fall back on the assumed probabilities of the closed system.
The bets at the craps table that have a 1.4% casino advantage are even money bets. It takes a long time to build a winning position. The hard eight has a 10% casino advantage but you can win 8 times your money on one roll. Instant gratification comes at a price. Hard way bets are also more fun because you get to throw chips across the table and yell out your bet instead of just placing chips down on the pass line.
NEW FUN QUIZ:
What does the published answer to this question tell you?
Q:
iii) You are in a bar and someone offers you a bet on the last digit of the serial number of the $1 bill the barman is about to give you as part of your change. Should you bet on odd or even?
A:
iii) You should always bet on odd. (2 points). The government may have issued an uneven number of notes, so there is a higher probability that there will be more odd numbered notes in circulation than even ones.
A) Math education is in sorry shape.
B) Editors don't read math related articles, and they can't spot simple logical flaws.
C) It just doesn't matter any more. It's all about popularity and fluff.