If you can’t spot the sucker in the first half an hour at the table, then you are the sucker.
— Poker aphorism
I understand why the above aphorism is appealing, but I think it’s wrong. People are increasingly too sophisticated to do something so obvious. Instead, I keep running across opportunities — sometimes investments, sometimes elsewhere — where participants are very careful to make sure that I “learn” who the sucker is right away, and it’s not me.
Trouble is, that’s shtick. One of the best ways to sucker someone into a losing bet or a losing investment is to to convince them that someone else is losing their shirt, thereby locking in oodles for you. Unfortunately, it’s almost always a trick.
In other words, if it seems really obvious that someone else is the sucker, then there’s still a better than even chance it’s you.
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I believe the dastardly scenario you are describing has a name: hustling. Remember how Vince (and his shirt that said “Vince”) couldn’t hustle people because he was too cocky to let himself be seen as someone who wasn’t a good pool player? The only difference is that while investment opportunity people, like Vince, are too cocky to play the part of sucker themselves, they do the next best thing by letting you know that someone else besides yourself is the REAL sucker.
Aaron Brown said much the same in his book, “Poker Face of Wall Street,” which come to think of it you recommended recently. Idea osmosis?
The real problem with suckers is their inability to gauge suckness (?) with any degree of accuracy. See google search for “dunning-kruger effect”…
Yes, the idea is also in “Poker Face”.
I had never run into the Dunning-Kruger effect before, so thanks for the tip.
well that is just the sleeeaze in VC. but truth be told. there has always been a sucker in the financial markets–the retail investor–the price insensitive buyer. either because he doesn;t care–buys shares….or doesn’t know–trusts his mutual fund—or unqualified hedge fund (most of them.
Paul, I’ve routinely sat down at poker tables with a rules card sitting in front of me. Once I see the eyes start rolling, I know I’ve got them.
Despite making it obvious that I’m the sucker, I’m yet to meet a player that recognized they are in fact the real sucker at the table.
Best,
George
Having played poker for a very long time, I think that the actual quote (from the dark ages before the internet poker boom and bust) is:
“If you can’t spot the fish at the table, you are the fish”, with a fish being an inexperienced player. It doesn’t say anything about winning or loooooosing, just experience.
In the short run, luck can trump skill. In the long run, skill trumps luck.
Back in the day, I was living in silicon valley, playing in low-limit home games with the cream of the Stanford math wonks. Low-limit, because we were friends and didn’t want the amount won or lost to be stressful. Brutal games, because winning meant a lot. Most of these people played high limit in the card rooms to supplement their income, a few were poker authors, all of them were solid players.
One of the regular player’s new girlfriend decided she wanted to learn. First home tournament she played in, she crushed us, despite having only a limited grasp of no-limit poker. Why? A little short term luck and a lot of playing outside of the normal strategies. The signals that poker players send each other, either intentionally or unintentionally, didn’t exist in her game. Lacking this information, the goos players were at a disadvantage and it only took a couple of situations of misreads to give her a huge advantage in chips.
The fish ate the sharks.
“the fish ate the sharks”
Sort of like the Bruce Lee observation about how you have to fight an amateur differently than a professional.
The amateur does so much random flailing around, it’s easier for them to get lucky. Which is why skilled players approach amateurs differently than other professionals.
It’s like dealing with a kamikaze pilot. You have fewer tools, you have to hit harder, and you have to be more careful about choosing your point of engagement.
If the pros didn’t spot the fact that this girl was an amateur though, and adjust their engagement accordingly, I would count that as a significant leak in their game.
Yes, as the saying goes, there is a sucker born every minute!
At the end of the day, it’s the one trying hardest not to look like the sucker that makes it all the more obvious to everyone at the table!
So my advise – stop trying so hard and inserting and/or asserting yourself when you should just stick to the cards that were dealt you!