The Sucker Myth
If you can't spot the sucker in the first half an hour at the table, then you are the sucker.I understand why the above aphorism is appealing, but I think it's wrong. People are increasingly too sophisticated to do something so obvious. Instead, I keep running across opportunities -- sometimes investments, sometimes elsewhere -- where participants are very careful to make sure that I "learn" who the sucker is right away, and it's not me.
-- Poker aphorism
Trouble is, that's shtick. One of the best ways to sucker someone into a losing bet or a losing investment is to to convince them that someone else is losing their shirt, thereby locking in oodles for you. Unfortunately, it's almost always a trick.
In other words, if it seems really obvious that someone else is the sucker, then there's still a better than even chance it's you. 1
