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July 27, 2007
Why is Tech Being So Damn Well-Behaved?
The markets are still grouchy today, with Dow off 118 points here at mid-day. Normally this it the point at which I would be chewing my arms off to keep from buying a host of high-beta stocks.But ... I can't help notice that the average Nasdaq 100 stocks isn't really off that much. Over the last three days the Dow has declined a little over 5%, while the median 100 member is off a scant 3.1%. Where's the fun bottom-fishing in that?
Don't people know all about Cisco/Apple/Google/etc.'s sub-prime exposure?
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overpriced stuff like Apple and Amazon and Google are propping up the nasdaq. in a bizzare and peverse twist on the "flight to quality" theme, this is where the perceived quality is in this market. they haven't fallen and indeed have soared, so they must be safe, right?









I saw some research that may be helpful in explaining that aberrant behaviour. (You didn't explicitly mention it, but high beta stocks like tech "should" be off about 1.5-2.0x any market drop. I.e. if the DJIA is off 5%, the NASDAQ is normally off 10%.)
A strategist pointed out that it might be a bit early to call the end of the current bull market...because we haven't yet seen the market experience a run in 'growth' stocks. Cyclicals did great (as usually happens) in the first phases of the bull run but we haven't seen a broad based rotation into growth stocks.
It is almost a precise parallel to the "it ain't over until the fat lady sings" opera meme. We can't move into a bear market until RIM trades at 100x sales, instead of its current measly 10x. Therefore, the reason tech stocks aren't underperforming the way we would expect them to is that trillions of dollars of managed money is selling down cyclical stocks but buying tech...in hopes that tech will outperform in the last phase of the cycle.