Having only just started his blog, Marc Andreessen is out of the blog-blocks with a lengthy, contrarian and critical piece about the non-bubble in technology. While various digerati have been wailing about the current frothiness in technology, especially in the Bay Area, Marc’s with me (including in this weekend’s NY Times) in saying, “What bubble?”.
The gist of his argument is that we’re genetically programmed to be nervous economic Nellies. As a result, we are over-eager bubble-spotters, and, as we know from behavioral finance, get more pain from losses than pleasure from gains.
Anyway, there is also good stuff on saber tooth tigers, so read Marc’s whole thing.
Btw, Gary Rivlin pretty much nails the context for all of this in the aforementioned NY Times piece. Here are the opening two paras:
GRANDPA lived through the Depression, and life thereafter was indelibly shaped by haunting memories of soup kitchens and hobos. Similarly, the digerati of Silicon Valley endured the 1990s dot-com bubble, and since then have lived with the psychic shock of its ignoble end.
The average valley entrepreneur tends to spot bubbles everywhere, much the way granddad feared financial ruin every time a grandchild carelessly scraped leftover food into the trash.
This is such an important insight, and a central reason why things have really only just begun in the current wave of change.