« KKR IPO ASAP | Main | Fun at Foo, CNBC, etc. »

Latest Stories

June 22, 2007

Blackstone and the Irrelevance of Oversubscribed Status, II

With Blackstone's IPO opening up a scant 18% from its $31 IPO price we have further evidence, if needed, of my point yesterday that being "heavily oversubscribed" is of dubious predictive value.

Sphere It   |  Digg this! Digg it   |  Bookmark this! Bookmark it   |  Stumble It! Stumble it   |  Facebook this! Facebook it

Comments

Well, the sign is right, and 18% is bigger than a rounding error even if you don't annualize it!

Paul, many of us remember the IPO pops of '99-'00 where offerings were oversubscribed by 10 or 20x, sometimes even 30x, or more. Who can forget The Globe? Sure, a $4B IPO is harder to place than a $75M, but as you say, does anyone that knows, really care?

Can you say bagholders??

Anyone buying this morning and not selling is a fool, this is nothing more than a rich man's vehicle so that they can continue to eat all those stone crabs at $400 per claw- (yahoo story)

Here's the best part....if you happen to be stuck in it becuase you got greedy and did'nt sell it back you have ZERO voting rights. Get in line behind the communists who own it as well.

peace

seems like some major potential to pullback but who knows

yeah i dont get what u say here. this was priced at the very high end and trades up 5$ on a day the markets are getting clobbered. not so shabby....

phil, well true that, true that

Paul -- Felix Salmon over at Market Movers put up a brief post showing what "oversubscribed" really means in the context of an IPO, and why it is indeed of dubious post-break predictive value:

http://www.portfolio.com/views/blogs/market-movers/2007/06/22/why-blackstone-wont-skyrocket-today

Sort of like Cisco's backlog during the go-go days of the late 90s: They kept thinking it was strong, but when the orders began to cancel they discovered that many buyers of their equipment had double- and even triple-ordered boxes in order to push their names up the waiting list and improve their chances of getting equipment. Their order book was "oversubscribed" for the same reasons.

TED