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June 15, 2007
iGod: Apple/Jobs Hit Piece in New York Magazine Monday
As i just talked about on CNBC, there is an entertaining Jobs/Apple cover hit piece coming in New York magazine on Monday. Called iGod, and authored by John Heilemann, the piece argues that Jobs & Apple have peaked; the iPod's best days are behind it (and being replaced by streaming); and iPhone is too expensive, etc. While Heilemann has some points, none of them are new. More importantly, he has said similar things in print before, including back in January in New York magazine, since which time AAPL stock has climbed 43%; and in 1998, since which time the stock has jumped 650%.
In other words, Heilemann is a nice guy and a felicitous writer, but he sucks as a stock-picker.
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Streaming? Streaming means wireless. Wireless eats power, because unlike an FM radio, it requires transmission as well as reception. This means streaming will run down batteries quickly, which is not compatible with typical audio device usage patterns. Battery technology does not improve very quickly, meaning it will be quite a while before this becomes practical.
Ergo, streaming will not be the primary mode of operation of portable audio devices any time soon.
Good point, Jon H. I've tried Pandora on my cell phone. The user interface is great, I love Pandora, sound quality is acceptable - but I can't use it.
I need to save the battery life on my phone for -- making and receiving phone calls.
Jon H., that is a common misconception that's just not true.
In typical implementations of conventional, high-speed wireless data protocols, the receiver takes nearly just as much energy to operate as the transmitter. You need a local oscillator running and gain to receive or transmit.
But it is true that keeping a convential, high-speed wireless data radio (e.g., 802.11a/b/g) on in a small, handheld device will run through its total charge in a hurry. The trick is to keep the radio off as much as possible.
Streaming?
Streaming to what?
Streaming is fine, but doesn't it have to stream to something?
How will I hear my music when I'm out riding my bike, or on the boat, or at the mall, or..........., without my iPod?
Is the music going to stream directly to my brain?
John Heilemann is totally clueless.
NYMag is not known as a financial or a tech authority, they should stick with politics, arts and culture--they are out of their element on this one...
He is paid by the shorts to create negative articles.
It may be total BS, but that cover is going to sell a boatload of magazines.
It amazes me how the main street media, all the pundits, and each and every one of Apple's competitors miss where Apple is fatally weak.
Its their manufacturing quality.
Seriously.
From notoriously buggy app, to disgracefully backlit laptop screens. A borderline silent recall on the MacBooks due to heat issue.
The list goes on and on. It just amazes me that nobody has figured out that Apple does the best demos in the industry, but just walk into any apple store and study the quality and you will see how to beat Jobs & co.
It is actually a statement of how weak and paralyzed as to how weak Apple's competitors really are.
(Fully disclosure: Ironically, I only use Apples computers, and had the joy this weekend of opening the 6th 17" laptop I have purchased from Apple through the years. Once again, Apple burned me with their shoddy display on a $3,000 computer.)
Well, if he says it enough times, sooner or later he'll be right ... or so he thinks.
And they said the iPod was too expensive when it launched to a very small Mac-only nascent mp3 market. I don't know yet whether the iPhone provides enough additional capability to cost hundreds more, but the PC/Mac smart cell phone market is way bigger.
Follow the money. Look for the big tech advertisers in the magazine. I bet you'll find a lot of competing cell carriers, and possibly even Microsoft. This release of the iPhone is huge, and the competition is very scared and very unhappy
Jeez George, if you think their laptop screens look so bad, why in the heck have you bought seven of them?
Now that I've read the article, I retract my statement. I found it fair and balanced for the most part. If anything, the article makes Apple's competitors appear desperate. For example, the streaming topic makes only a brief appearance in one paragraph in which an Apple competitor (not Heilemann) predicts the iPod's demise, but does not make a compelling argument. Anyway, lesson learned -- I will no longer comment on anything sight unseen -- and neither should Paul.
Paul, you're being way too nice. Apple is about to release a new product line that will boost revenue by at least $4 billion in 2008. How can he possibly argue that the company has peaked?
Also, he's wrong about streaming. The next trend is the supersized flash drive (lots of storage that is, not physically large). Old habits die hard. Computer files will continue to dominate for a long time. Wake me up when 5G arrives. Maybe then I'll agree that the age of streaming has arrived.