The End of the Paid Video Download Market

There is a new report out from Forrester trumpeting the end of the paid video download market. Cynics like me might say that there would have to have been a market first before we could herald the end of it, but nevertheless it’s good stuff. Here is the nut:

Like a flightless bird, the paid video download market in its current evolutionary state will go the way of the dodo, despite the fast growth and the millions being spent today. Television and cable networks will shift the bulk of paid downloading to ad-supported streams where they have control of ads and effective audience measurement. The movie studios, whose content only makes up a fraction of today’s paid downloads, will put their weight behind subscription models that imitate premium cable channel services. What’s left of the paid download market will then evolve into IP-delivered video on demand that has more in common with traditional pay-per-view than online download business models today.

There is some interesting data in this report, and I’ll try to get back to it later when I have a moment.