The U.S. Federal Reserve has just released a fascinating historical document, the minutes from the first post-9/11 meeting (as well as other minutes from 2001). Read it here as Greenspan, et al., try to understand just what the economic consequences of the attacks are likely to be.
Not to pick on Alan, but he presents a possible scenario where the attacks could in a roundabout way create a more peaceful Middle East.
Indeed, one can envision a scenario–itâ€™s a low probability scenario but scarcely zero–that this tragic event could create a fairly pronounced and significant shift in the political structure in the world and that as a consequence, the areas that in the last several decades have been of longer-term concern, mainly those relating to the availability of crude oil, could conceivably change. The widespread shock effect and some of the implications of the current politics could get a lot of people turned around, including those in moderate Arab states.
Ouch, looking backward from $4 oil, that prediction hasn’t panned out.