Emanuel Derman relates a Fischer Black observation on trading from 1994 that is worth pondering:
All opportunities have stories. When prices are funny, and we can tell a good story about why they are funny, we should take big positions. But stories about trends or monetary policy are usually not good stories. When we evaluate traders, it’s crucial to judge the stories they trade on. Looking only at their profit and loss statements is a recipe for disaster.
Wise words. In trading it’s as much how you got there as the results you obtained.