Central Bank Chairs, Fed Futures, Assassinations, and Rational Pessimism

Four new investments-related NBER papers worth scanning/reading:

  • Fed funds futures contracts are excellent predictors of the fed funds rate (Hamilton)
  • Rational pessimism and rational exuberance in explaining the equity risk premium (Bansal, et al.)
  • Markets don’t care who chairs a central banks, except when they do care (Kuttner, et al.)
  • The effect of assassination on war and institutions (Jones, et al.)