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May 24, 2007

Central Bank Chairs, Fed Futures, Assassinations, and Rational Pessimism

Four new investments-related NBER papers worth scanning/reading:

• Fed funds futures contracts are excellent predictors of the fed funds rate (Hamilton)
• Rational pessimism and rational exuberance in explaining the equity risk premium (Bansal, et al.)
• Markets don't care who chairs a central banks, except when they do care (Kuttner, et al.)
• The effect of assassination on war and institutions (Jones, et al.)
  

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