Skills and Non-Exponential Tails

Nice and sobering comment from Emanuel Derman this morning:

When you forget skills or knowledge you once used but then neglected,
I’ve noticed that they don’t fade away gradually. Some of the physics
or math I used to use and know well stayed with me for years, and then,
after several years or a decade of neglect, faded quite suddenly.
Similarly, if you don’t run regularly for a while, but only
occasionally, nothing about your speed changes until, one day, several
weeks or a month later, there’s a precipitous drop or an injury.

My sense it that these tails aren’t exponential or even power. They’re step functions, leaps and bounds.

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1. Long Tails and the Infinite Playlist
2. The ABCs of Google
3. Controversial Pop-Up Advertiser Dies
4. Heads, Heads, Heads, Heads … Tails?
5. Five Facts You Need to Know About Technology Diffusion