To reiterate something I said on CNBC last night, I mused bullishly about technology over next eighteen months based on enterprise buying picking up. Said nice things about Cisco, Dell, Juniper, and others.
A point I’m wavering on is whether Microsoft should be lumped into that group. The bullish case is that a rising enterprise buying tide lifts all tech boats, even ones with holes; the bearish case is that Microsoft’s core businesses are slowing, spending is increasing on unprofitable programs, and the company is f(l)ailing in search-related ads.
A reader made the point in a different way to me via email. His take: The Dow’s has outpaced Nasdaq materially over the last twelve months. Assuming the Dow doesn’t backslide, then cheap-o mean reversion would suggest significant Nasdaq (read:tech) outperformance.