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March 28, 2007
Aruba's IPO Win and My IPOs Resurgence Hypothesis
Mean to mention it yesterday, but wireless networking company Aruba Networks' IPO did well yesterday, up 23% to the close. My IPO resurgence hypothesis that I started talking up last fall now seems more or less a lock.So, anyone still interested in taking the other side of my longstanding bet that Fortune, Forbes, or BusinessWeek runs a "Tech IPOs are Back!" cover sometime this year? Trust me, it's coming.
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True. I don't actually care if it's venture-backed though!
BW has alredy done that story, just not on the cover. Several times in fact, begiunning in 1/06 and notably with a tech focus in 12/06. And yet, the stats don't move. 51 deals YTD - actually a bit below last year pro-rated -- and many/most still from private equity rather than venture-backed. If Tellme and DCLK, which are fairly prime IPOs, want to sell privately that is telling you something. Only about a dozen deals, maybe less, appear to have been tech from my quick read of the list.
Fortune will be the one to fall hardest; they
re always the biggest suckers for shiny finance stories about younguns. Check out how they fell hook line and sinker for Photobucket -- break even on 32M of revenue this year, and according to Fortune worth as much as Shutterfly (125M trailing revenue and profitable). And shutterfly is arguably overvalued even though it went well below teh price it floated in the WSJ last year.