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December 18, 2006

Bearish on Google Interest Income

The WSJ has a piece (one badly missing a useful chart) today making the bearish case for Google earnings in 2007 based on the declining oomph being delivered by interest income as year-over-year comparables become tougher.

Q4 '05: 7x
Q4 '06: 1.68x

That historical spike goosed Google earnings growth overall from 63.8%, year-over-year, to 78.8%, but, so the argument goes, with the company's cash-delivering IPO receding into the past things get tougher going forward.

Fair enough, but it's worth pointing out that rates are also higher than they were, which will help, and it isn't as if investors aren't expecting a size effect to kick in this year, with Google earnings decelerating something just becase of the law of large numbers.

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