There is a useful new CERA report out strongly critical of peak oil theory. Instead, the report’s authors argue, technology advances mean we are set to see a near-doubling in oil supply by mid-century, and then an “undulating plateau”, before decline begins toward the end of this century.
But as CERA Chairman Daniel Yergin points out, technology innovation could make even this muted scenario too pessimistic:
“This is the fifth time that the world is said to be running out of oil,” says CERA Chairman Daniel Yergin. “Each time — whether it was the ‘gasoline famine’ at the end of WWI or the ‘permanent shortage’ of the 1970s — technology and the opening of new frontier areas has banished the specter of decline. There’s no reason to think that technology is finished this time.”