The Microsoft earnings call today should be largely hyperbole. What with Microsoft stock having, until recently, outperformed Google this calendar year, everything about the Vista/Office upgrade cycle is baked into MSFT stock — don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
So, this becomes an exercise in “where’s the upside?” We’ll have people worrying about Capex, which will almost certainly come in high end, both now and prospective, and would take down futures for Microsoft. We’ll have people wondering about wireless and X-Box, both of which could represent upside, that is, of course, if onyl they would stop losing money and grow profitably a little.
Put it this way: The fewer questions about Office/Vista, the more I’d say MSFT’s current price has everything baked into it.