Bush Approval Ratings vs. Gas Prices, Part II

The biggest thing that Democrats have to fear as they gloat about a possible Congressional takeover in the upcoming fall elections isn’t a resurgent Karl Rove, nor intemperate Bush speeches linking Democrats to Neville Chamberlain. No, their fear should be falling gas prices.

As I showed last spring, there is a strong inverse correlation between Bush approval ratings and average gas prices in the U.S. With prices having speedily moved recently to near-term lows, it will be zero surprise if we see a material bounce in Pres. Bush’s approval ratings as we get closer to the upcoming elections.


  1. The correlation between Bush’s approval ratings and the price of gas may be more causation than we’d like to imagine.
    For instance, Chevron’s Sept.5th “Big Oil Find” prize PR, hand delivered on Bush’s the first day back from vacation is one such interesting nugget.
    That announcement certainly fed into the crude price drops of late: http://www.mrci.com/ohlc/cl/cl06v.asp
    What is less clear is whether press secretary Stowe et all can deliver 3-4 more “externalities” put forth into the press by mid-October, perhaps one involving Canada/Mexico and one involving resurgence in refining capacity.