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September 21, 2006
The Financial End is Nigh
Okay, the financial end is nigh:- The Dow is at an all-time high
- Hedge funds are going public, while other hedge funds are in major strategy drift melt down
- High-concept community sites may be being bought for $1-billion
- Zecco is launching in October with zero-commission stock trading
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I'm skeptical that there will be true "zero-commission stock trading". That would encourage not day-trading, but seconds-trading.
Financial end might be a little strong but I do agree that the returns experienced over the past 5 years are going to be difficult to match in the next 5 years.
However, I do share your concerns over the Billion dollar community sites. Neither the revenue models, nor revenue levels support many of their valuations. More importantly, despite scale they do run the "popularity" risk where audiences leave for the next cool community.
YouTube is the best example of this. If they become the poster child of Web 2.0 and flame out, they could put a damper on the entire space. Something we don't need right now given the lack of successful Web 2.0 IPO's.
Best,
George
And the Nasdaq is 56% off its old highs
I know CNBC makes it sounds as if everything in 1999 again, but while the Dow is near all time highs the S&P500 is still nearly 20% off of its old highs.