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July 20, 2006
Nassim Taleb: The Scandal of Prediction
Fun Nassim Nicholas ("Fooled by Randomness") Taleb audio presentation here on the trouble with making predictions. It's definitely worth a listen.
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He gave what I gather is a similar talk at Pop!Tech 2005 - (http://www.itconversations.com/shows/detail786.html) . At any rate the audio quality is better.