Hasta la Vista, Vista

While I said as much at the last delay in Windows Vista, Gartner is now joining the party and opining that Windows Vista will be delayed ever further than Microsoft is currently forecasting:

Microsoft’s track record is clear; it consistently misses target dates
for major operating system releases. We don’t expect broad availability
of Windows Vista until at least 2Q07, which is nine to 12 months after
Beta 2.

Granted, there is a weasel word in here — “broad availability” — and Gartner’s forecasts are erratic, at best, but the provocative point still stands.


  1. Duncan Stewart says:

    You are quite right when you call the predictions of the consulting industry “erratic.” However…given that most of the consultant’s work is funded by the people they study, the conclusions disproportionately tend to have a wildly optimistic bias.
    Therefore history has told me to ignore most consultant forecasts (or at least discount them.) On the other hand — when a consultant makes a NEGATIVE prediction they are almost always right. Not a happy thought for Microsoft…or the PC industry that was looking forward to a semi-timely Vista upgrade cycle.

  2. Good point, Duncan. That is another way of saying something quants have known for some time when it comes to look at equity analyst data: Ignore upgrades and pay attention to downgrades — especially solo ones on widely-covered stocks.