I don’t do much (any) politics here, but Francis Fukuyama’s lengthy piece in today’s N.Y. Times on his disavowal of current neoconservativism is thoughtful and nuanced reading.
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Politics: After Neoconservativism
By · February 19, 2006 · ·
I read his piece. Yes, I agree with his assumption that the push for democracy was naive. It only works for us sophisticated english/anglo folks, heck even the French can’t get it right. So to think that those people can get democracy is so laughable. They don’t want a better life for themselves and their children– because they don’t know better. Its such a shame Kerry was not elected, our hands would be clean of this mess. Of course there’s the whole Khmer Rouge type-deal that would (continue) to ensue, but hey nothing like peace of mind.
My primary disagreement is with his assertion that radical Islam is primarily a result of the loss of identity in the shift to modernity. While this is certainly true, this radicalism does not take place only in an existential vacuum. I’d argue that it is primarily a tool (and the primary tool) of the totalitarian regimes of the region. Taking the cartoon riots as an example, these were carefully orchestrated theatre by actors that included Syria and Iran. These regimes use Islamic radicalism as a tool to threaten, and also keep their own populations inline.
He also makes the assertion that what we have done in Iraq is similar to the social engineering of the 60′s and 70′s. Those programs imposed order. In Iraq we have injected disorder, and unleashed a whole host of forces, good and bad.
We are three years into our efforts in Iraq. It took ten years for Reagan to achieve total victory over the Soviet Union. In many ways we are fighting several totalitarian regimes (Syria, Iran, Saudi Arabie) and its going to take time to bring each to heel, no matter the tactic we use. As these regimes transtion, you’ll see a decrease in state sponsored radicalism. There will remain a nihilist element, but the state sponsored part of the equation will be drawn down.
In terms of alternatives to the UN, he uses NATO as an example. This is a good one, and we are hearing rumblings of both Israel and Iraq joining NATO. That would be an incredible development, and one brought about by the US assertion of power.
In terms of anti-americanism, that will continue to be the core theme of the global left, but they are losing control of country after country. Canada and Germany have elected new conservative governments, more pro-US. France has read the tea leaves and is a solid ally of our efforts in the area, and even may elect a conservative shortly.
The Iranian situation will be a key test of the thesis I am outlining. It seems that we are keeping our military options open (a week of bombing seems to be the best option) while consolodating the opinion of the French and the Germans- a very welcome result and not what the mullahs expected.
It also might be that the popular refrain “There Were no WMD” might not be so, documents are starting to come out of Iraq that shed light on this issue:
“A top Pentagon official who was responsible for tracking Saddam Hussein’s weapons programs before and after the 2003 liberation of Iraq, has provided the first-ever account of how Saddam Hussein “cleaned up” his weapons of mass destruction stockpiles to prevent the United States from discovering them.
“The short answer to the question of where the WMD Saddam bought from the Russians went was that they went to Syria and Lebanon,” former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense John. A. Shaw told an audience Saturday at a privately sponsored “Intelligence Summit” in Alexandria, Va. (www.intelligencesummit.org)
“They were moved by Russian Spetsnaz (special forces) units out of uniform, that were specifically sent to Iraq to move the weaponry and eradicate any evidence of its existence,” he said.
Shaw has dealt with weapons-related issues and export controls as a U.S. government official for 30 years, and was serving as deputy undersecretary of defense for international technology security when the events he described today occurred.
He called the evacuation of Saddam’s WMD stockpiles “a well-orchestrated campaign using two neighboring client states with which the Russian leadership had a long time security relationship.”
Shaw was initially tapped to make an inventory of Saddam’s conventional weapons stockpiles, based on intelligence estimates of arms deals he had concluded with the former Soviet Union, China and France.
He estimated that Saddam had amassed 100 million tons of munitions –- roughly 60 percent of the entire U.S. arsenal. “The origins of these weapons were Rusisan, Chinese and French in declining order of magnitude, with the Russians holding the lion’s share and the Chinese just edging out the French for second place.”