The $100-Billion Buyout Boondoggle

Martin Halusa’s of Apax Partners’ Davos comment that we will see a $100-billion buyout fund within ten years has sure got a lot of people talking. If anything, however, my hunch is that, as this Time of London article says, we will see one much sooner than ten years from now, but it will be mostly for marketing reasons.

My general view is that private equity returns will take a backseat over the next few years as capital, competition, and relative deal scarcity drive down performance from recent peak levels.


  1. Paul,
    You are probably right in your forecasts but I’d not-so-secretly wish that you were wrong.
    Private equity return will be what ever you want them to be. If enough people think that PE is gonna blow up over the next 2-10 years – then by far and large – pe is gonna go stratospheric.
    I doubt if pointing to any kind of fundamentals is any different to an exercise in self confirmation.