2006 Will Be the Year of XMPP

The very bright Boris Mann is spot-on in saying that 2006 will the year of XMPP. Mind you, I said the same thing last year, and so I’m really just self-servingly using Boris to punt my XMPP forecast into the coming year:

I’ve been following the growth of Jabber/XMPP for years, and here
are some of the concepts and happenings which I think are going to blow
it wide open in 2006:
  • …XMPP isn’t just about IM anymore: there have always been really cool examples floating around in the Jabber community (e.g. Google Maps + Jabber,
    including a *very* cool way to login by having the server message you a
    login phrase), but the really big news is JINGLE, including the
    immediate release of an audio transport, with Asterisk integration
    almost immediately and video probably not far behind.
  • …The push for realtime: this goes hand in hand with the last point.
    The super secret part of XMPP is that it’s not about IM at all…it’s a
    generalized XML message passing protocol optimized for real-time. Every
    once of effort to get faster polling of RSS is wasted…it’s an
    asynchronous poll model — XMPP is the step beyond. I suggested that Plazes throw away it’s proprietary protocol and use XMPP directly, preferably using the User Geolocation JEP
    that has already been defined for exactly such uses. Anything else you
    want to pass around in real time that can be represented in XML? Like
    real-time ATOM? Yep, the possibilities are endless.


  1. i really wish xmpp would take off and become the smtp of IM, but the IM market is far too fragmented, and at this point xmpp is being viewed in the competitive market not as an open standard, but as the google protocol. this is why yahoo and microsoft will never adopt it, and why aol probably will.
    my bet is 2006 will see microsoft and yahoo play together even more, as will google and aol. the neutral parties like ebay and amazon will realize they shouldn’t try to nose into the fight, theyve got dominant positions in their own markets. to wit, amazon will think of shutting off a9 and ebay will wonder why it bought skype.