The Kedrosky Crow Countdown

The following is excerpted from an email today to me from a VC friend of mine. He decided to remind me about some public predictions I made in a December 2004 column about the outlook for Apple. Here is what he sent:

The Kedrosky Crow Countdown:

“In four years, Macintosh will be languishing, iPod will be shelved alongside Beanie Babies and margins will be plummeting – and Apple shares will be 1/3 of current levels. If I’m wrong, I’ll print this column and eat it.”

{By the way, is the eating condition that all four conditions must be met, or will two of four suffice?} 

After One Year

Macintosh Sales – A move to the Intel platform surprises everyone.  From Oct 16th : “In the U.S., Apple Computer Inc. squeezed into the fifth spot on IDC’s tally with 737,000 shipments for 4.3 percent of the market, with 44.6 percent year-on-year growth. Apple came in fourth on Gartner’s U.S. shipments list with 744,000 shipments and 4.2 percent of the market. ” 

Ummm, not languishing.

iPod Sales – Release of nano and video versions. From Q3 results October 17th: “Apple Revenue, Profit Soar On iPod Sales” Performance was driven by a 220% year-over-year increase in iPod sales, the 10th consecutive quarter of record sales for the devices.”

So far, beanie babies alone on the shelves.

Margins Plummeting – Gross margin across the company was up from 26.6% to 27% in the latest quarter and net income was up 384% from a year ago.

Margins improving from 25% in late 2004.

Apple Shares  –  The stock was a split-adjusted $32 in mid-December last year.  It is down today to a mere $60.61.  So, the stock has to get to $11 from $60 in three years.  Hey, we all know that could happen.

So, don’t get out the knife and fork yet, I just wanted to “set the table” for you.

Related posts:

  1. iPod = Walkman, sayeth Rollins
  2. Apple Re-enacts Greatest Marketing Mistake Ever
  3. George Colony Eats Crow Over Google
  4. Google’s Countdown
  5. Expensive Chips

Comments

  1. I guess George Colony can pick on you now?
    You may enjoy this post
    http://dealarchitect.typepad.com/deal_architect/2005/11/the_theory_of_t.html#
    slice that meat extra thin, but keep making your projections!

  2. Ed says:

    No one said being a bear is easy.
    Queston: What does it feel like to be wrong for two years…and then right for two?
    Answer: Most people can’t remember…