Heads, Heads, Heads, Heads … Tails?

From Barron’s this weekend, Bill Miller’s streak of beating the S&P 500 could be in jeopardy:

Legg Mason Value Trust, run by longtime manager Bill Miller, has beaten the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index in each of the past 14 years. For that streak to continue, the fund needs to make its move soon.

Through Thursday, the total return from the fund (ticker: LMVTX) was 1.82%, trailing the S&P by 1.24 percentage points.

This is a familiar position for Miller and his staff. Trailing the benchmark late in 2004, the fund managed to best it by the very end, notching a 12% return. The S&P gained 10.9%.

Miller, who looks for undervalued stocks in a number of sectors, likes to make concentrated bets and to hold his positions for long stretches. As of Sept. 30, the fund’s top 10 holdings accounted for 46.2% of the $18 billion fund. Last year, Sprint Nextel (S) had a nice fourth-quarter run, boosting the fund’s returns.

Related posts:

  1. A Return to Venture Skewness (& Serial Persistence)
  2. Long Tails and the Infinite Playlist
  3. Flight to (Perceived) Quality & First-Time Venture Funds
  4. Rethinking Serial Persistence of VC Returns
  5. The Elephant in the VC Living Room