Analyst Pip Coburn of UBS is quoted extensively in a WSJ piece today on this wood anniversary of the bursting of the technology bubble. I agree with the following comment of his, which should make Pip worried that we’re both dead wrong:
So where do investors turn now when they feel bullish and want to bet on fast-growing stocks? Technology stocks.
“It’s not so much a fascination any more. It is an affliction or an addiction,” says Pip Coburn, Global Technology Strategist at UBS. He sees it all ending badly once again.
…Mr. Coburn … sees the Nasdaq falling as low as 1500 or 1600 during the next year or two — a decline of 23% to 28% from here. Taking that into account, it could be 20 years before the Nasdaq returns to its old record, he says.
He no longer considers most technology companies vehicles for major innovation. He sees them as mature companies focused on cutting costs. “Some of the best innovations that come up will be in areas that have nothing to do with technology — areas like life sciences or energy,” he says.