Google Confounds the Amateur Stock Pundits

GOOG stockDon’t you love how Google confounded the amateur stock pundits today? The drumbeat was relentless about the amount of GOOG stock coming out of lockup — 177-million shares, nearly double what has come out since last summer’s IPO, and roughly the same number of shares as the total float of Hasbro or Goodyear — and how that would drive the price down.

Well, as you can see at right, it didn’t happen. Google shares actually ended the trading day above where it closed last Friday.

So, was the lockup’s end actually good news? No, it was short-term bad for shareholders, with more float meaning more selling pressure on the stock. But as is always the case, the news has been being discounted into Google’s price for a long time, probably more than a month at this point. By the time the actual date arrived it really didn’t matter any more, at least not in the sense of being bad news — it was, as traders like to say, already baked into the stock.


  1. It’ll be interesting to see what happens when the market has 2-3 large down days. I’m wondering how patient insiders will be. It’s the classic battle of Fear vs. Greed. Which will prevail?
    Not today’s business. But one of these days.
    It’s a nice search engine, tho.

  2. What’s the difference between “amateur” and “professional” stock pundits? I guess the professionals use more hair spray.

  3. Precisely! More seriously, I was just put out somewhat by all the people who ignore equities all year long, and then suddenly have a view on one stock, one time, when they discover that a large lockup is expiring.